Roli /Ableton Move speculations - 8/10/24

[marcora]

Of course this is just for fun of speculation for a few days

Ableton has invested a lot in MPE and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Ableton Move hardware would come as an ecosystem where ROLI provide additional Blocks to connect to it and provide MPE input.

It would be cool to snap a ROLI M Block keyboard beneath it, and other blocks for fader, fx pad, and drum pad control!

All with a nice beefed up version of Ableton Note as a companion app for more extensive sound, sequence, and sample editing, ala Yamaha Seqtrak

BLOCKS: The instrument that grows with you

[SteveElbows]

ROLI have been going in the opposite direction to that Im afraid. They’ve actually been removing some of those ‘DNA connectors’. The most obvious example is that I think they got rid on the ones on the upper edge when they did the Seaboard Block M, just retaining one one either side of the device for expanding the octave range. Some of the ports have been relocated to the top edge too. Theres probably a few reasons why they did this, including giving up on their much broader blocks vision, I dont think they have interest in the control blocks or the lightpad blocks these days, so the connectors are just for joining multiple Seaboard Blocks and/or Piano M blocks together.

And although my memory is fading on this and I might have got something wrong via misremembering, I think this change in approach was obvious even before they launched the updated Seaboard Block, I think it started with the Lumi (which is now rebranded Piano M).

[greaterthanzero]

You keep ignoring the aesthetic you’re pointing to.

BLOCKs have rounded corners. Every single one of them.

The leaked image does not.

[puiz]

Roli thinks (or pretends to think if you’re cynical) that they invented something world-changing. Last thing they’d do is share it with some other company, unless that other company offers something that’s absolutely necessary for the survival of your product. If this is a controller that any DAW can already use via a plug-in by Roli, then there’s exactly zero reason to share the limelight with anyone else. If the major DAWs need additional support for this, then it’s the stuff of behind-the-scenes negotiations and deals, and quick one-line mentions like “And your favorite DAW supports it too.” I’d bet €100 that this will have zero to do with the new Ableton product, maybe except a desire to upstage them.

[marcora]

I am not saying Ableton made the Move compatible with the current Roli lineup, but that they might have setup a collab with Roli (like they did with Akai in the past for the Push) to manifacture the Move and companion input modules.

It’s likely that the Ableton Move leak is a fake, but just for fun I am speculating that additional MPE controller modules with mag snap-on may be coming with the Move if it is a collab between Ableton and Roli.

[greaterthanzero]

@marcora

just for fun I am speculating that additional MPE controller modules with mag snap-on may be a fun way to complement the Move.

I should also add, those DNA connectors actually detract from portability.

Sure, the blocks fit in your backpack more easily. But try playing them in your lap.

(it’s bizarre to me that they haven’t put out a three octave block to correct this fundamental oversight.)

If it’s to connect with other controllers, the right move is a USB host port. With optional Bluetooth.

[marcora]

I too do not like mag snap-ons for that reason… that’s probably why in the Roli Songmaker kit they seem to have some sort of tray for support… but I’d rather have a wireless connection.

[greaterthanzero]

And to Steve’s point, Lumi introduced a market need for more BLOCK accessories. Like, say, a detachable mod wheel.

If Roli was financially solvent at the time, I’m sure they would have capitalized on the opportunity. And failing that, they should have partnered with third parties to fill that need. But they weren’t interested in letting anyone else use their patented connectors.

I don’t expect that would change now, even for Ableton.

[marcora]

We’ll know soon enough

[SteveElbows]

@greaterthanzero

If Roli was financially solvent at the time, I’m sure they would have capitalized on the opportunity. And failing that, they should have partnered with third parties to fill that need. But they weren’t interested in letting anyone else use their patented connectors.

They werent good at making products that actually made them a profit per unit when they sold them. And back when they had big ideas about accessory blocks they were pursuing a doomed strategy of thinking they could get into the Apple retail stores and become a popular product line there and gain loads of momentum. What actually happened was they got into Apple stores very briefly, but were not a success there and were removed from Apple retail after not that long. I expect that whole plan went down the toilet after that, it was one of Roland Lambs visions that was not matched by reality.

When the first ROLI company failed, they owed their primary manufacturing partner, who actually made the stuff, over £5 million pounds!!! Its unlikely that they have a reputation that would make others keen to collaborate with them, for that and various other reasons. And certainly not in regards other synth etc companies hardware products and manufacturing.

[greaterthanzero]

Up until this last month’s hype train, I was convinced that they’d restored their core focus and were on track to becoming leaders in music technology again (instead of gambling everything on unsustainable growth, and trying to become a household name).

Ah well. We’ll see what’s to become of them in a few days.

[SteveElbows]

Whatever happens with actual product it is completely impossible for me to look at them in that sane way or compare them to genuinely successful and sustainable electronic musical device companies.

Because when they were restructured into a new entity, they in no way escaped their extreme venture capital origins. For example, I believe that the investment that ‘Triplepoint Venture Growth’ made in them was transferred over, and that involved something like a $35 million loan to the old company that the new company still owes to that fund. There are other investors too, and although some of those lost everything with the demise of the original company, there have probably been subsequent fund raising rounds involving the new entity, and so new investors who also hope for a nice return at some point.

And so its still a world of silly money where they have to gamble on somehow achieving some insane scale one day.

[SteveElbows]

I’m also aware that most of the figures I chuck around in regards ROLI are some years out of date, and complex accounting etc details means that some of those numbers can change dramatically for reasons I am not qualified to explain.

So I looked at some more recent publicly available data for the company, mostly from their June 2024 account filing, which covered the financial year up to June 2023:

For year ending June 30th 2023, they had a turnover of £7.6 million, and a gross profit of £4.3 million from that.

However they had £12.6 million of administrative costs for that year, and £2.3 million of costs for interest payable and similar.

These figures combined caused them to have a £10.6 million pound loss in that financial year. The previous year, they had a loss of £9.6 million.

They have £14 million of liabilities listed.

Since that date, they discuss some other things. £1 million and £1.5 million under its inventory financing facility. And an extension of terms on this facility to push repayment off into the future. They also issued £500,000 of convertible loan notes, and issued £4.5 million of new shares. Later, in May 2024, they agreed a term sheet for a further £7 million of equity funding with existing and new investors.

So nothing has changed, still the same approach to money, same as how the old company operated. Silly money everywhere you look. And so it is no surprise to see the following sorts of statements about their goals are present in the same document:

“At the core, the Group is focussed on connecting people and technology in new, more seamless ways”

“The Group has plans to release new hardware, software and applications in 2024 which will further strengthen its position as one of the most innovative and disruptive groups in the music instrument industry”

“As a point of reference, we estimate the global music learning market to be approximately $78 billion per year, of which only ~2% is digitized. This means there is a significant market opportunity for an integrated hardware/software/content solution, a space which our product offering fills precisely”

So as far as Im concerned, the silly money keeps coming in because they can still find investors who think ROLI might get a bigger piece of another silly number, the $78 billion ‘estimate’. But they are addicted to silly money, claiming to have good margins and profit from the actual product sales, but then spending well over 10 million on ‘administration costs’ per year. They piss money away. Corporate / VC wank.

[thetechnobear]

speculation over…

Ableton Move

4 track standalone groove box , seem to be similar to ‘note’.

https://community.polyexpression.com/t/ableton-move-released

Roli Airwave

not an instrument, but rather an ‘assistant’ for leaning for piano-m/lumi.

https://community.polyexpression.com/t/roli-airwave-released

no connection / collaboration between the two.

topics created for both, so discussions can continue there…
till next time